Near-Perfect Predictions on Polymarket - Explained

A curious thing popped up on Polymarket: a single trader whose success rate has been sitting near 100% throughout his entire activity. You can check his profile here. He places all kinds of bets - sometimes just a few dozen dollars, sometimes tens of thousands. At this pace, he has already made more than $428,000 in profits since the start of the year, placing over 14,000 bets. That’s an average of about $3 per prediction.

Does he see the future? Not quite. He simply bets on the most likely outcome - and often does so when just a few moments are left before the market closes, sometimes literally seconds. That’s why the payout per bet is so small.

What’s surprising is that even in those final seconds, when the outcome is basically certain, there are still market participants willing to place bids worth 0.1 to 1 cent on the opposite outcome. That’s exactly what this trader scoops up. It seems many people simply forget to cancel their bids once everything becomes obvious.

You could call this arbitrage - eliminating inefficiencies. And it exists in all markets. But it feels like only the crypto industry, with its endless stream of innovations that are hard to keep up with, still leaves room for arbitrage opportunities even for solo traders, sometimes even those acting manually.

Want to try it yourself? All cryptocurrencies accepted as deposits on Polymarket are available at the best exchange rates on rabbit.io.