A Few Words About Forecasts

VanEck’s decision to drop its 2026 forecast lined up almost perfectly with the release of a Dune and Keyrock report on prediction markets.

VanEck has a long-standing tradition of publishing bold annual crypto forecasts. This year, however, the company chose to treat that tradition with a bit of self-irony. Instead of the usual list of predictions for 2026, it simply wrote: No predictions for 2026. Good luck, everyone!

It is worth recalling that for 2025, VanEck expected Bitcoin at $180,000, Ether at $6,000, and Solana at $500. Current prices are nowhere near those levels, and any new forecast from VanEck would inevitably be viewed through the lens of those past misses. In that context, choosing not to publish a forecast at all may be the most sensible move.

This is not a capitulation. VanEck manages roughly $100 billion in assets and still allocates part of that capital to Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana ETFs. The firm is simply acknowledging that the market is unpredictable and refraining from making bold calls.

At the same time, Dune and Keyrock report that Polymarket outperforms more than 85% of crypto projects in terms of user retention. They even titled their report on prediction markets The Next Frontiers of Financial Markets.

So what do we end up with? Major institutions step back from making forecasts, yet remain invested. Retail crypto users, on the other hand, seem to be doing the opposite: selling their coins, but continuing to place their bets on predictions.